The AUD/USD exchange rate has been stable within a tight range at a significant support level following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to keep interest rates steady. The asset was priced at 0.6500, a decline from the year-to-date peak of 0.6700. The AUD/USD pair responded to the recent RBA interest rate decision, where officials maintained the rate at 3.6%. The situation regarding the country’s inflation is troubling, as it has consistently stayed above the 2% target. The latest figures indicate that Australia’s headline, trimmed, and weighted consumer inflation experienced an increase in the third quarter. Consequently, a reduction in interest rates is expected to contribute to increased inflation in the upcoming months.
The upcoming pivotal factor influencing the AUD/USD exchange rate will be the jobs numbers released on Thursday. Analysts anticipate that the upcoming report will indicate the headline economy generated 14.5k jobs in October, following the creation of 14.9k jobs in the preceding month. The unemployment rate is projected to increase from 4.5% to 4.6%. The labor market holds significance; however, its influence on the RBA is expected to be limited, as the bank is currently prioritizing inflation concerns. Another factor influencing the pair will be any updates regarding the current government shutdown. Indicators suggest that the shutdown may conclude shortly, which would alleviate pressures on the economy. The release of essential macroeconomic data, such as employment figures, is imminent.
In the interim, the AUD/USD pair will respond to significant remarks from prominent Federal Reserve officials such as John Williams of New York and Anna Paulson of Philadelphia. Additional Federal Reserve officials, such as Raphael Bostic and Stephen Moran, are expected to offer further insights into future expectations. The daily timeframe chart indicates that the AUD/USD pair has exhibited volatility over the past few months. The value has decreased from a peak of 0.6700 to the present figure of 0.6495. The pair has declined beneath the 50-day Exponential Moving Average. The asset continues to trade beneath the Supertrend indicator, indicating that bearish sentiment prevails.
The AUD/USD pair has established a head-and-shoulders pattern and is currently positioned at the neckline. The True Strength Index has also shifted below the zero line. Consequently, the AUD/USD pair is expected to experience a significant bearish breakout, possibly reaching the psychological level of 0.6400. A breach above the resistance level of 0.6536 will negate the bearish perspective.