The AUD/USD exchange rate remained confined within a narrow range at a crucial support level, as market participants anticipated the forthcoming Australian consumer inflation report. The pair was trading at 0.6463, slightly above last week’s low of 0.6430. The AUD/USD exchange rate has experienced a decline in recent months, coinciding with the US Dollar Index rising to a peak of $100.6, an increase from the year-to-date low of $96.2. The pair is set to attract attention in the coming days as market participants concentrate on the forthcoming Australian monthly report. Analysts anticipate that the upcoming report will indicate an increase in the headline Consumer Price Index from 3.5% in September to 3.6% in October.
The trimmed and weighted mean consumer inflation rates are anticipated to be 3.2% and 3.0%, respectively. Should these figures hold true, it appears probable that the Reserve Bank of Australia will choose to maintain interest rates at their current levels during the upcoming meeting in December this year. In the meantime, the pair is expected to respond to the forthcoming economic data from the United States. The Conference Board is set to release the most recent consumer confidence report, offering insights into the current state of the American consumer. Economists surveyed by Reuters anticipate that the data will indicate a slight decline in consumer confidence for November, projecting a decrease to 93.5 from 94.6 in October of this year. A decrease in consumer confidence indicates that economic activity is decelerating.
The AUD/USD exchange rate is expected to respond to the forthcoming US retail sales, pending home sales, and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index. The forthcoming figures will offer deeper insights into the state of the American economy and the expectations surrounding the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. The AUD/USD exchange rate has faced downward pressure recently, declining from a peak of 0.6706 to its present level of 0.6465. The asset has fallen beneath the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages. Additionally, the pair has established a head-and-shoulders pattern, recognized as one of the most prevalent bearish reversal formations.
Consequently, the most probable outcome is that the pair will keep declining, possibly reaching the next significant support level at 0.6350. A breakthrough above the critical resistance level at 0.6550 will negate the bearish perspective.